Friday, November 28, 2008

In my opinion our market has hit the Christmas slow down. So I have included a couple of articles for general intrest. Our city lot draw was this week and about 25% of the lots sold. That is a far cry from other years when everything sold. Our inventory has climbed on the resale side and I believe it will continue to do so. The pricing seams to be softening but I think we will be Spring 2009 before we can get a good reading on the market direction. My opinion is intrest rates still will come down but unemployment will continue to rise which should make for less expensive home construction costs on the labor imput cost side. I think we will see some great opportunities to buy and hold over the next few months but will we recoginize these opportunities, that will depend on our risk tolerance levels. I am looking forward to seeing where sales are this month compared to last year. I should have those numbers posted about the 8th of December.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

U. S. home builders face even worse year ahead

Cash-strapped companies cutting jobs
Helen Chernikoff, Reuters
Published: Wednesday, November 19, 2008
The U. S. housing slump is set to worsen in 2009, as fallout from this year's plunge in the stock market and consumer confidence continues to cast a pall over potential buyers.

Builders will find themselves increasingly cash-strapped and forced to pull out of more markets and cut more jobs.

"As weak as it's been, it could get weaker," said Fitch Ratings analyst Robert Curran, who has detected a tendency on the part of forecasters to shift their predictions of a 2009 housing market bottom into 2010.

Home builders collectively see that loss of consumer confidence driving the entire industry "another leg down," UBS analyst David Goldberg wrote in a client note.

Such a protracted slump--the market peaked in 2006--could yet force a big builder to fail, Curran said.

So far, Florida-based condo builder WCI Communities Inc.'s filing in August was the biggest among builder bankruptcies, which also included Tousa Inc. and Levitt& Sons, regarded as the builder of the first planned community.

Credit default swaps on Hovnanian Enterprises, Beazer Homes USA Inc. and Standard Pacific Corp. are trading at an upfront cost.

That happens when a company is considered to be distressed and sellers of protection want to be paid more at the outset of the contract due to higher perceived risk of the company defaulting on its debt.

As the lifeblood of any company, cash becomes a crucial gauge of a business' health in tough times, said Georgia Tech College of Management professor Charles Mulford.

Since the slump started, builders have focused on accumulating the shiny stuff by ramping up incentives and selling the land they accumulated at peak prices during boom times, even at a loss.

"They're in deep hibernation trying to live off what they built in the past," Mulford said. Yet next year's cash flow might be weaker than this year's.

"2009 will not look like 2008 from a cash generation perspective in the industry in general because again, the demand continues to fall," Pulte Homes Inc. Chief financial officer Roger Cregg said during the company's third-quarter conference call.

2009 is shaping up to be treacherous from a cash flow perspective in part because of the expiration of a tax provision, the "net operating loss carry-back,"which enables companies to generate a tax refund against operating losses.

Several builders have used this mechanism to bolster cash flow. Of the $192 million in cash flow Hovnanian generated in its third quarter, $95 million was a federal tax refund.

In the absence of such refunds or a renewed flow of cash from home sales, builders might have to turn to their banks for support. The problem is that they have already done so, repeatedly asking their banks to revise their agreements to reflect the weakened state of their business.

CMHC sees stable housing market

Dan Healing, Calgary Herald
Published: Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Calgary housing market turmoil that has led to layoffs at new home construction companies, abandoned condo projects and a collapsing average resale home price will moderate and stabilize in 2009, according to the latest quarterly forecast by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

One result will be the end of the current buyers' market.

The average resale home price will be $406,000, the federal agency predicts, barely above the anticipated 2008 price of $405,000 and down almost two per cent from $414,000 in 2007. Sales will slide from 32,177 in 2007 to 25,000 this year and 25,700 in 2009, coming back to near the 10-year average level.

In new construction, 4,500 single-family detached homes will be constructed in 2009, up from 4,300thisyearbutoffby42percent from7,777in2007anddown 57 per cent from the 10,482 in 2006.Multi-family starts will slide to 2,500 in 2009 from 6,800 this year.

"We're looking at a slower level of growth," said Lai Sing Louie, a senior market analyst for CMHC, after a presentation to about 500 people at the Roundup Centre.

"Employment is growing by about 1.3 per cent (about 9,100 jobs in Calgary in 2009) so it's a more moderate pace of growth."

He added Calgarians looking to buy homes have the power to negotiate now because of a glut of resale home listings and a shrinking new home order sheet.

"Overall, we are in buyers'market conditions," he said. "But buyers'market conditions do not last forever and, moving into 2009, we're looking for more balanced conditions."

Richard Corriveau, CMHC economist for the Prairies, said Alberta is forecast to post real gross domestic product growth in 2009 of 1.9per cent, after hitting 2.1 per cent this year, 3.3percent in 2007 and 6.6 per cent in 2006.

Employment growth will be 1.3 per cent provincially and net migration will reach about 51,000.The Alberta forecast calls for 15,000 new single-family detached homes, 9,000 new multi-family starts and 61,000 resale home sales at an average price of $356,000 (about the same as the record level in 2007).

Trevor Gloyne, CMHC general manager forthe region, cautioned members of the crowd not to take the CMHC's or any other forecast asgospelbecausethereissomuch uncertainty in the marketplace, especially regarding oil and gas investment.

"The(factors)Iwouldwatchare capital commitments and oil and gasprospects. Thesearechanging on us on a fairly rapid basis," he said, adding consumer spending is also an unknown quantity.

Louie forecast Calgary apartment vacancy rates would rise from 1.5 per cent in 2007 to three per cent next year and 2.5 per cent thisyear, leadingtoaveragerenton atwo-bedroomapartmentof$1,140 this year and $1,150 next year.

Meanwhile, the cost of home ownership will decline thanks to lower housing prices and interest rate cuts, narrowing the cost difference between renting and owning.

He expects new single-family detached home prices will fall by two per cent in 2009, making it easier for homeowners to move up to a new house.

"We'll likely see the cost escalationswe'veexperiencedinthepast come down, so if people are planning a project, probably 2009 is a good time to do it," said Louie.

Dhealing@theherald.CanWest.com

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

CANADIAN HOME SALES PLUNGE TO SIX-YEAR LOW

Slide suggests major downshift by consumers

Eric Beauchesne Canwest News service OTTAWA

The Canadian economy has taken a sudden sharp turn for the worse, with the housing boom finally turning to bust with the home sales plunging 14 per cent to a six-year low in October the steepest monthly drop in 14 years, and prices tumbling 10 per cent from year earlier.
The fall in sales from September left them down more than 25 per cent from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported Friday.
The surprisingly weak housing report was released Friday afternoon as North American stock markets were retreating and oil prices and the Canadian dollar were failing in the wake of a much steeper than expected retreat in U.S. consumer spending last month.
One bay Street, the disappointing U.S. news overshadowed strong economic reports on Canadian factory shipments and auto sales.
Bay Street’s benchmarks S&P/TSX dropped nearly three hundred points, wiping much of the previous day’s gains, while on Wall Street, the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average slumped nearly 338 points, also erasing most the previous day’s gains. Oil fell by more than $1US barrel to $57.04, helping knock the loonie down by nearly a cent to a close of 81.60 cents US.
“Many homebuyers across Canada battened down the hatches in October as they were concerned with dire headlines about stock market volatility and a global economic downturn,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association.
“The breadth and depth of the drop in … activity suggest a major downshift in consumer psychology” he said, adding that has moved many people to the sidelines until the economy starts to improve.
The federal government’s tightening up of the mortgage eligibility rules, aimed ironically at avoiding a U.S.-style housing bust, likely also had an impact, he added.
“Elimination of mortgage default insurance availability for purchases with less than a five per cent down payment and for amortizations beyond 35 years also likely payed a lesser role in the decline in sales activity,” he said.
“These figures, on the surface, would suggest the bust has begun,” said BMO Capital Markets economist Douglas Porter, adding that while the sharp drop may overstate the current weakness in the Canadian housing market, Canadians should expect even further declines in sales and prices in the months and year ahead.
National sales were down 27 per cent from year-ago levels, while some of the larger cities in the country, notably Vancouver and Toronto, posted even steeper drops, he noted. Further, nine of 10 provinces reported double digit sales declines in the month, with Newfoundland and Labrador bucking the trend with sales there up 15 per cent from a year earlier.
Even before the release of the home sale report, North American stock markets were posting triple-digit retreats, after the U.S. reported retail sales last month fell 2.8 per cent, the steepest drop in 11 years, which followed a 1.3 per cent drop in September.
“The drop was much worse than the 2.1 per cent decline expected by the markets, and was the fourth consecutive monthly drop in the indicator,” said TD Securities analyst Millan Mulraine, nothing that sales there were also down 4.1 per cent from a year earlier, the worst performance on records dating back 40 years.
“The details of the report were simply dismal,” Mulraine said. “The general tone of the report was very dire as it clearly indicating that U.S. consumers may have finally thrown in the towel.”

Friday, November 14, 2008

HOUSING SLOWDOWN EXPECTED TO WORSEN

Consulting firm forecasts starts to decline further
Eric Beauchesne Canwest News Service Ottawa

The slump in housing construction starts in Canada next year will be widespread and will be deeper than what is now being forecast by the federal housing agency, according to a real-estate industry consulting firm.
Starts will plunge more than 20 per cent to 165,000 units, Altus Group said Tuesday in a forecast that expects to see the pace of construction falling in every region and in all major cities.
The forecast pace of construction next year is also seven per cent less than the 178,000 projected by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., while the Altus Group projection for this year, at 208,700 is also somewhat less than the 212,000, now projected by CMCH.
“The acceleration in the international financial crisis in recent weeks is quickly taking a toll on the Canadian economy in the form of decimated consumer confidence, tighter lending standards and plummeting prices for energy and commodity prices,” it noted in its forecasts. “A strong likelihood of an economic recession has emerged from the crisis and along with it dramatically weaker housing demand.”
“Expect sharply lower housing markets in 2009 as Canadian housing markets get pummeled by these forces,” it warned, adding there’s a risk the economic down-turn could also be sharper and more prolonged that is assumed in making the forecast, and the housing slump could be similar to those of the early 1980s and 1990s rather than the shallower housing recessions of the 1950s and 1960s.
Home resale have now been waning for five quarters and inventories of unsold new and existing homes is rising, it said, adding it survey results show that while buying intentions held steady last month, they are down from their peaks.
It projects there will be no growth in jobs next year and only weak gains in incomes, which will dampen demand for housing.
On the bright side, it noted there was less speculative home construction than in the U.S. and that inventories are nowhere near the levels that exist south of the boarder. At the recent pace of sales activity in Canada there is only a one month supply of unsold homes on the market, it said. That compares with 10 months in the U.S.
Meanwhile, a survey of real estate firms by consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute found that 58,2 per cent of respondents felt they had “very good” or “excellent” prospects for profitability, down only moderately from the 62,3 per cent who felt that way last year about 2007.

HOUSE PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL FOR AT LEAST A YEAR

Garry Marr
Canwest News Service Toronto

The average price of a home sold in Canada will fall this year for the first time in a decade and might not even recover by 2010, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.
The Ottawa-based group, which represents 100 boards across the country, updated its forecast in light of new economic conditions and now expects home prices to drop 0,6 per cent this year and 2,1 per cent next year. Three months ago the group was forecasting price increases for this year and next year.
“Canadian economic growth is being side-swiped by financial market turmoil, slowing world economic growth and weaker commodity prices,” says Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA. “The question of whether Canada will avoid a technical recession is moot, growth will be slow enough that it will feel like a recession.”
The forecast comes on the same day Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said new home construction remains strong, but economists cast doubt on the strength of that market, too.
“While new home construction in Canada has been holding up quite well thus far, we expect starts to weaken considerably over the next year,” said Dina Cover, an economist with TD Bank Financial Group.
She expects a decline in the part of the market that includes condominiums.
“We expect this month’s drop in multiple-family units to continue and to put a major dent in the headline figure.”
CMHC said there were 211,800 units constructed in October on a seasonally adjusted annualizes basis, down three per cent from month earlier. The crown corporation said last month that for the first time in seven years it expects housing starts to dip below 200,000 in 2009. It is forecasting a 16,1 per cent decline in new home construction next year.
Klump said despite the fact Canada is still building more homes than are required based on demographics, existing home sales have not been affected.
CREA expects housing sales will decline by 12 per cen this year from 2007 and then fall another three per cent next year. It expects improving conditions in 2010.
“The pricing environment will be more firm than it is now”, said Klump adding it’s too early to say whether prices will rise in 2010.
CREA president Calvin Lindberg also repeated his position Monday that the U.S. housing market is much different, most notably because the Canadian market does not have the same oversupply of homes.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Housing starts still lagging

By Advocate staff

Published: November 10, 2008 9:17 PM


With two months remaining in 2008, housing starts in Red Deer are down nearly two-thirds from 2007.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported on Monday that from January to October, work had commenced on 298 single-detached dwellings and 170 units in multi-family buildings, for a total of 468 starts.

During the same period last year, the numbers were 873 for single-detached homes and 485 for multi-family units, for a combined 1,358.

This decline of 65.5 per cent was the greatest among Alberta’s seven major urban centres.

The Edmonton metropolitan area had the second-biggest drop at 54.5 per cent, Medicine Hat was down 44.1 per cent, Grande Prairie experienced a 41.6 per cent slide, Lethbridge was off 26.3 per cent, and the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo fell 24.1 per cent. The Calgary metropolitan area recorded the smallest decline, at 13.8 per cent.

During the month of October, there were 42 construction starts on single-detached homes in Red Deer, as compared with 61 in October 2007.

No starts on multi-family units were reported in the city this October or last.

Total housing starts across the seven urban centres during October decreased 43 per cent from last year, to 1,682 from 2,931.

Nationally, CMHC said housing starts during the month were six per cent lower than for the same period in 2007.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

MLS® STATISTICS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2008

MLS® STATISTICS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2008
Prepared for the members of the Central Alberta Realtors® Association

City Residential Sales

October 2008 128
October 2007 152
January 01, 2008 to October 30, 2008 1,809
January 01, 2007 to October 30, 2007 2,026

Value of City Residential Sales

October 2008 $38,073,800
October 2007 $46,818,150
January 01, 2008 to October 30, 2008 $559,155,595
January 01, 2007 to October 30, 2007 $624,756,465

Selling to Listing Ratio (CITY)

October 2008 35,37%
February 2008 55.16%

The Informed Home Buyer/Seller™