Monday, October 20, 2008

Are you confused about our market?? I think if you talk to 10 different people you will get 10 different answers or opinions on our real estate market. Here is my opinion on our market. Up until a month ago I was very positive about our market as many of you know, I was of the opinion that our inventory levels were going to bottom out in November and stabilize until spring. My opinion was that we would see a slight increase in pricing next year and my guess was about 5%. Over the last 3 weeks my opinion has changed drastically!! I now have huge concerns about our financial system not only here but on a global perspective and secondly on our economy both here at home and abroad. I am of the opinion that our market is still driven by the oil industry and if you agree with me then our slide in oil prices should be of a concern. In the last few days oil prices have traded in a range of $68.00 to $72.00 and many experts are suggesting we could see prices in the $50.00 to $55.00 price range. Even if the prices stay where they are currently or decrease slightly more I believe our conventional oil is still okay, but what about natural gas which is our largest percentage of production not oil. Our natural gas prices need to increase to keep drilling. But here is the big question can the junior oil companies get the financing they need to operate drilling programs this year?? If not in my opinion we have a problem. What about the heavy oil at about $85.00 a barrel my guess is you are at about break even. How long do the major oil companies wait before they moth ball the expansions. I think that our commodities and the dollar have a direct correlation and as commodities drop so will our dollar. With United States and Europe in a recession we will have trouble shipping our products to the rest of the world. If the Bank of Canada lowers it's interest rates by say another 1% will it really help I think not. I am seeing our real estate inventories increase. In the last 2 weeks our increases have been way more than I ever thought and my opinion is this is going to continue. So get you helmets on and buckle up, as I think we are in for a interesting ride over the next 18 months. I am of the opinion that we will be hit less here than the rest of Canada but will the banks pull there horns in? Did I need to ask that last question it has already happened. If I am right you will need a realtor that has a vision and ideas to see you through these turbulent times. I have a plan to help you get through these times. I believe it will be sucessfull as the way my marketing plan has been. If I am right there will be a lot of money made and a lot of money lost in real estate over the next 18 months. Where do you want to be? Give me a call to discuss your real estate needs.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I believe it's very hard to guess now - everything depends on the next steps of our Bank of Canada and other central banks. I think we can expect unchanged interest rate for some time, but sooner or later it will go up. I have seen World Economic Forum's survey about banks, where Canadian banks were placed as the soundest banks on the world! On the other hand, the pressure from abroad will be hard and inflation will be a real threat and it may slow down the market substantially.
But I wouldn't be afraid some serious real estate price drops are knocking on our door, the market is still going on well (in Toronto we have average days on market on the value around 35 days, I think that's very nice) and real estate can be still considered a solid long term investment in Canada...
Take care
Julie