Althought Alberta's economy remains solid, the number of people moving here is declining because of higher house prices and strengthening economies in other provinces, delegates to a one-day conference were told.
After reaching a record 85,911 people in 2006, net migration into the province is expected to total 65,000 this year before declining further to 58,000in 2008, said Richard Corriveau of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
As Prairie region economist for the federal agency, he spoke at the recent Housing Outlook Conference.
"Despite the solid economic performance, the province's ability to attract migrants is diminishing in response to Alberta's escalating housing costs and improved economic conditions in British Columbia and Saskatchewan," he said. "Many recent arrivals from these provinces are now mooving back home".
Net migration is the inflow of people minus the outflow.
Saskatchevan has gone from "near recession" to one of the stronger economies ib the country, says Corriveau. But there is a downside to Saskatchewan's situation, he says.
"Despite an aggressive marketing campaign to bring people into the province, thought, the milk is starting to sour there" he says. "House price gains in Saskatchewan are leading the country."
The average price of resale homes in Alberta has gone from about $285,000 to a forecast of $355,000 this year. The price will likely climb to $379,000 in 2008, says CMHC. In terms of new homes, construction will likely pull back from a predicted 47,750 this year to 42,250 by the end of 2008 _ again in response to reduced demand and higher prices.
Corriveau said Ontario is now the largest contributor to Alberta's migration, in part because of the downturn in the fortunes of the eastern province's manufacturing sector.
Alberta will also have to rely more on offshore migration, he said.
"What we gained from B.C and Saskatchewan a year ago, we've given back because of the economic growth in those provinces," said Corriveau.
The expected revitalization of energy projects off the East Coast and the recent visit of a trade mission to Calgary could lure some people to return home.
While wages lag behind Alberta levels, housing prices are much lower.
He calls Alberta's net migration for 2006 an anomaly and adds the "significant" decline forecast over the next two years will bring migration back to more historical levels.
But Alberta will likely maintain the lowest unemployment rate in the country at 3,5 per cent, leading to additional wage pressure and a high rate of full-time job creation _ considered a beneficial factor for the province's housing sectors.
However, with the weakening migration and a record number of Albertans employed, businesses in the province will likely have a difficult time matching the payroll expansion of the last two years.
Healthy gains of five per cent last year and this year will be cut by more than half in 2008, says CMHC, with employment growth limited to 2,1 per cent _ the second weakest in 15 years.
"In fact, employment, migration and the rate of economic growth are all past the peaks and we will now see a return to 10-year averages," says Corriveau.
That will likely mean job growth of two per cent annually, migration of 40,000 to 50,000 per year, and economic growth in the mid-three-per cent range.
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